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The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has a disciplined approach for identifying companies that are expected to outperform and underperform the market by using proprietary metrics and measurements that have been tested and proven through time. Because AFG’s research is fundamentally derived, AFG’s quantitative analysis spans across growth and value stocks, all sectors, industries, and market caps with over 20,000 covered securities globally. Using AFG’s proprietary criteria, AFG publishes a monthly buy/sell list to provide clients with a refined focused list as a starting point for potential investments. AFG clients can then use Value Expectations to further analyze the expectations embedded in a security’s price and to build out their own model to refine an intrinsic value of a company based on their own expectations.

When searching for Large-Cap ideas, AFG’s Buy/Sell list is a good starting place as it has proven to create a significant spread in performance between companies that come up on AFG’s buy list and those on the sell list. Further focusing on companies based on AFG’s proprietary screening criteria (Economic Margin, valuation, quality of earnings, and management’s ability to create shareholder wealth) will save investors time in their research process.  The result is a target group of stocks that can help you outperform as well as identify potential torpedoes to avoid in your portfolios.

Below is a list of attractive and unattractive companies in the S&P 500 from each major sector (as defined by AFG).  It serves as a focus list of companies for investors to begin with as they meet AFG’s criteria.  They are more likely to outperform their sector peers and the S&P 500, the benchmark that AFG’s clients most often compare themselves with.

Source: EconomicMargin.com

AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).

Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.

Management Quality – Assesses management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.

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To stay updated on how other professional investor's currently view the market join our Market Forecast Project survey and be among the first to receive the results.

The Applied Finance Group’s (AFG) Market Forecast Project is a monthly poll of professional investor’s designed to provide insights on how investor’s currently view the market and economy. This poll started out as an AFG client only poll at AFG’s annual research summit, but due to its popularity and successful predictions it has been expanded to all professional investors who register and participate and will be done monthly. The benefit of participation is being the first to receive the results before they are released on our blog or to anyone else. Earlier this month as a result of one of the poll’s questions that the Tech sector was the most attractive sector to invest in over the next 12 months, we released a list of Tech stocks that we like and a few that looked overvalued as well. In last month’s survey the Basic Material sector was the second most attractive place to invest due to the fact that many investors see an economic recovery ahead that may directly benefit many of the companies within the Materials sector when home building and new construction begin to correct and recover. Provided below is a list of Basic Material stocks that we find attractive and unattractive based on AFG’s default buy/sell criteria, valuation attractiveness and expected change in Economic Margins (AFG’s measure of corporate performance/profitability). Companies expected to improve Economic Margins greater than sector peers have proven through back-tests to be the most likely companies to outperform. Companies with attractive default valuations according to AFG have also consistently outperformed companies AFG views as overvalued.

Source (The Applied Finance Group)

*Valuation & EM Change are Ranks within their sector

AFG's Buy/Sell Criteria - factors in Economic Margin, Management Quality, and AFG's Valuation Metric. In order to determine Management Quality, AFG scores management on their growth decisions in accordance with the company’s ability to either create or destroy wealth. AFG's Valuation Metric measures a company's Percent to Target (the deviation between a stock's current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model.

If you are a professional investor and would like to be a part of our next survey click here.

Understanding the true intrinsic value of a company is very important when attempting to identify and take advantage of mispriced securities. The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has proven to be successful at helping their clients find attractive investment opportunities and also help avoid potential torpedo stocks by utilizing their Economic Margin Framework. AFG’s Economic Margin (EM) is the measure of the true economic profitability a company is earning after several adjustments to eliminate distortions caused by traditional accounting practices. Understanding a company’s EM levels and expected changes in EMs is important as it has been proven through vigorous back-tests that a company’s expected change in EMs is highly correlated with the company’s future market performance. Companies expected to improve their EM’s have proven to be more likely to outperform than those companies with declining EMs.

Source (The Applied Finance Group)

According to Bespoke Investment Group, the companies on this list have incurred the biggest changes in their EPS estimates over the past month. We took the top/bottom 10 companies (excluding financials) on the list and provided our outlook on these firms based on their attractiveness from a valuation standpoint and the sales growth expectations embedded in their current stock price. The companies on this list with an attractive valuation and reasonable expectations for growing sales are the companies we believe are the most likely to outperform.

It is important to note that earnings are important but not sufficient for evaluating a firm’s ability to create wealth and the shortcomings of EPS alone, take a look at a recent article titled EPS Incresed…Company Underperformed? For a more comprehensive approach to valuation, we suggest you look at the following strategy of how The Applied Finance Group finds value.

Companies With The Biggest Changes To EPS Estimates (last 4 weeks)

*Companies are listed in order from the biggest increase/decline in EPS estimates to the smallest increase/decline.

*AFG’s Value Expectations allows us to understand the Sales Growth, EBITDA Margin, and Asset Turnover a company has to deliver in the future to justify its current trading price. In theory and in normal circumstances, if the imbedded future performance is very conservative relative to the company’s historical performance, the stock is regarded as undervalued. The table displays the implied future Sales Growth of the list of companies assuming their EBITDA Margins and Asset Turnovers stay at the 5 year median levels.

If you have a bullish outlook on the recovery of the global economy over the next 2-5 years, it is important to know which industries will likely perform the best coming out of a global recession. Daniel Moser of Seeking Alpha believes that the US is likely to begin experiencing economic recovery starting in 2010, and believes that mining companies may be the most attractive industry for long-term investment opportunities.

With China and the US implementing huge economic stimulus plans - $585 billion in China and $787 billion in the US – the amount of money designated toward advancing and expanding these countries’ infrastructure greatly impacts the attractiveness of investing in mining companies. Infrastructure improvement is heavily dependent on utilizing copper and other base metals, a major part of these companies’ business. During the recent global slowdown these companies have sold off to extremely distressed levels making their current trading prices very attractive, if you believe like we do that they will bounce back and provide long term rewards to shareholders.

Another reason to be bullish on mining companies at this time is the opportunity for financially strong companies to consolidate at attractive discounts. According to Moser, most industries make the mistake of acquiring assets during a booming period, but some of these firms will realize discounted prices when they purchase competitors now that valuations have improved. Yet another positive signal the author notes is that hedge funds tend to have a macroeconomic bias and frequently invest in firms that show signs of benefiting from a global economic recovery.

Moser also makes the claim that there is evidence that the U.S. will be running into inflationary problems which in theory would hurt these firms. However their involvement in the production of gold and silver along with the fact that these companies have considerable amount of foreign exposure and that a few are based outside of the U.S. will give them the ability to survive an inflationary environment in the US.

Of the companies on Moser’s list, we find a couple of attractive investments. Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) and steel mini-mills Nucor Corp (NUE) and Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) stand out the most. The mini-mills are more nimble and can adjust their production more quickly to meet demand, whereas US Steel (X) is bogged down with less-efficient operations. Additionally, Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) is exposed heavily to legacy steel producer US Steel. 

Mining Companies and Their Implied Sales Growth Expectations

*AFG’s Value Expectation allows us to understand the imbedded Sales Growth, EBITDA Margins, and Asset Turnovers a company has to deliver in the future to justify its current trading price. In theory and in normal circumstances, if the imbedded future performance is very conservative relative to the company’s historical performance, the stock is regarded as undervalued. The above table displays the implied future sales growth of these mining companies assuming their EBITDA margins and Asset turnovers stay at the 5 year median levels.

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Fidelity’s Low Priced Stock Fund, which launched in 1989 (18 Billion AUM) and is managed by Joel Tillinghast, follows a simple strategy… Only invest in stocks with a share price under $35. This strategy first started with Tillinghast only investing in stocks below $10 a share, but later he moved the limit up to $35 a share. He argues that share price alone is not important but that the small-cap universe contains the most frequently mispriced stocks and the least amount of analyst coverage.

Although his fund at best has been a market performer as of late, Tillinghast had taken advantage of such mispricing’s during the last 15 years, averaging an 11% annual return compared to the 6% return earned by the S&P 500 over the same period. The fund had been closed to investors since 2003, but was recently reopened in December. Fidelity says they reopened the fund to get more cash inflow to be able to take advantage of all of the investment opportunities they see in the market.

Below is a list of the top holdings in Fidelity’s Low Priced Stock Fund as well as stocks that AFG believes are attractively priced in three price brackets: under $10, $10 to $20, and $20 to $35. Compare the implied sales growth priced-in to justify the current trading price (VE Sales Growth) vs. what the company has delivered in sales growth the past 5 years (5 Year Median Sales Growth) to see if the expectations are realistic for the company to achieve. The more realistic the expectations are, compared to what has been delivered, the more likely the firm will be to out-perform.