WIN

In our July Market Review we released a series of graphs representing the valuation attractiveness of each sector relative to its historical norms and to the entire AFG universe. Below is a graph representing the AFG Technology sector which is attractively priced when you compare against its historical trading ranges (red line) and when comparing against the overall AFG Universe (represented by the value of 1). Listed are 5 attractive and 5 unattractive companies in the AFG Technology sector that are within the S&P 500. Also listed below the graph is an explanation of AFG’s Relative Valuation Chart.

Last week on www.ValueExpectations.com we provided readers a list of the most reliable companies from the Russell 1000 based on the quality of earnings (accrual levels), management’s ability to create wealth along with other criteria The Applied Finance Group uses in its stock research process to identify firms that are the most likely to outperform. After the large selloff yesterday, with many predicting another large correction around the corner and the increasing number of bearish opinions on the market we will provide our readers a list of the riskiest firms in the Russell 1000 to avoid or to trim from your portfolio when looking to eliminate positions.

When analysts and market pundits come on tv to talk about stock picks, they usually talk about the "P/E" ratio (Price to Earnings) being attractive.  However if you're investing in stocks and you only look at the "P/E" ratio, you might be walking into a "Value Trap".  Investors ignore half the valuation picture when investors only concentrate on P/E as investors also need to consider the growth potential of the company and what investments are needed to get the earnings.  The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has developed a process that incorporates these factors easily into the valuation framework.  Using AFG’s Valuation Metric, we have compiled a list of 20 companies with low P/E, 10 of which we consider attractive investments, and 10 of which we consider Value Traps.

By using AFG's Economic Margin framework instead of earnings alone, investors capture the true net cash flow the entire firm is generating. It is not uncommon for companies to grow P/E while having declining EM’s. This occurs when the cost for the investment required to yield the increasing P/E is more than the cash flow generated from the investment. By analyzing a company’s EMs through time, investors gain a more accurate account of levels and changes in a company’s current profitability and value.

If earnings are a true proxy for performance, there should be a correlation between a company growing earnings and its price to earnings ratio. As a surprise to many investors, there is actually little to no correlation between earnings growth and price to earnings ratios (see chart below).
 

P/E is determined by taking a stock’s price and dividing it by the last four quarter’s worth of earnings. P/E alone should not be used to value companies. P/E does not look at a company’s balance sheet thus we do not know what the costs of generating those earnings. While the P/E is determined by looking at a company’s past performance, EM bases a company’s value off its future projections. By using EM, an investor can know how their stocks are likely to perform, allowing them to clearly evaluate where to invest.

Successful companies measure results, make decisions and set strategy with the goal of creating value. A company’s performance measures must serve as a proxy for its market value creation. While important, S-T Earnings alone are a poor indicator of a company’s value, due to what they do not measure.
 

Economic Margin is a more complete performance measure for companies to use to guide performance and motivate employees. Executives consider Cash Flow, Investment, Competition & Risk when setting strategy. The above charts show that investors do the same.

AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).

Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.

Investment Insights from your peers, Professional Investors - The Applied Finance Group would like to invite professional investors to join AFG’s Market Forecast Project so you can better understand what your peers currently think about the market and cultivate the “wisdom of Crowds” into actionable investment ideas and themes. 
Click here to learn more

16 Potential Torpedoes - That Could Be Lurking In Your Portfolio

 

 

AFG recommendations are ranked and have consistently identified winners and losers, therefore, this list of potential torpedoes should be given a second look if you own them or are considering adding them to your portfolio as they have characteristics that AFG has proven to be more likely to under-perform.