WAG

A focus list of buys and sells for our readers to use as a starting point when looking to make changes to portfolio. This list contains attractive and unattractive stocks from every major sector excluding financials. AFG's buy and sell lists have proven through time to provide a significant spread between the buys and sells helping you to identify winners and avoid potential torpedoes.

Twice in 2009, ValueExpectations.com highlighted “Fidelity’s Low Priced Stock Fund”, an investment strategy that has been employed since 1989 by fund manager Joel Tillinghast. The theory behind this “low-price” strategy is that stocks within the small cap space tend to experience the most frequent mis-pricings and have the least amount of analyst coverage. Mr. Tillinghast created this strategy to take advantage of the numerous inefficiencies in small caps. They started out as a strategy to invest in stocks trading below $10; that limit has since been raised to $35 to widen the pool of investable stocks. Since the prior 2 stock lists that we previously provided have outperformed, we will once again provide our readers a list of 30 attractive stocks under $35.

The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has a disciplined approach for identifying companies that are expected to outperform and underperform the market by using proprietary metrics and measurements that have been tested and proven through time. Because AFG’s research is fundamentally derived, AFG’s quantitative analysis spans across growth and value stocks, all sectors, industries, and market caps with over 20,000 covered securities globally.

When searching for Large-Cap ideas, AFG’s Buy/Sell list is a good starting place as it has proven to create a significant spread in performance between companies that come up on AFG’s buy list and those on the sell list. Further focusing on companies based on AFG’s proprietary screening criteria (Economic Margin, valuation, quality of earnings, and management’s ability to create shareholder wealth) will save investors time in their research process. The result is a target group of stocks that can help you outperform as well as identify potential torpedoes to avoid in your portfolios.

Below is a list of attractive companies in the S&P 500 from each major AFG sector (excluding financials). It serves as a focus list of companies for investors to begin with as they meet AFG’s criteria to be an attractive opportunity. They are more likely to outperform their sector peers and the S&P 500, the benchmark that AFG’s clients most often compare themselves with.

Investment Rank within Sector Ticker Name Sector  Opportunity Valuation Signal EM Change Signal  Attractive Large Caps - S&P 500 (NYSE:FCX) FREEPORT-MCMORAN C & G Basic Material Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:BMS)  BEMIS CO INC Basic Material Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:WAT)  WATERS CORP Capital Goods Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:DO) DIAMOND OFFSHRE DRILLING Capital Goods Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:OI) OWENS ILLINOIS INC Consumer Durable Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:WHR) WHIRLPOOL CORP Consumer Durable Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:LO)  LORILLARD INC Consumer Non Durable Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:CL)  COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO Consumer Non Durable Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:KSS) KOHL'S CORP Consumer Services Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:WAG)  WALGREEN CO Consumer Services Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:NEM) NEWMONT MINING CORP Energy and Extraction Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:MUR)  MURPHY OIL CORP Energy and Extraction Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:PFE) PFIZER INC Health Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:WPI) WATSON PHARMACEUTICALS Health Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:VZ) VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS Technology Attractive Attractive Positive (NASDAQ:ORCL)  ORACLE CORP Technology Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:UNP)  UNION PACIFIC CORP Transportation Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:BNI)  BURLINGTON NTH SANTA FE Transportation Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:PEG) PUBLIC SVC ENTPRS GROUP Utilities Attractive Attractive Positive (NYSE:AEP)  AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER Utilities Attractive Attractive Positive

Source: EconomicMargin.com

AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).

Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.

Management Quality – Assesses management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.

+View our List of Value Expectations Recommended Articles

AFG Recommendation Performance
9/1998 – 5/2009
Annualized Returns

Source: AFGView client databases from 9/1998 – 5/2009
Universe size: 4,000 to 5,500 firms

The Applied Finance Group’s (AFG’s) valuation technique helps investors identify and take advantage of mispriced securities in the market. One way investors can identify over or undervalued stocks is by using AFG’s Intrinsic Value Chart, which displays a company’s intrinsic value relative to its trading range and helps entry/exit points.

This easy to read chart identifies how far a stock’s trading range deviates from its intrinsic value (target price assuming immediate decay), which helps you recognize potentially mispriced stocks and pursue long and short opportunities. AFG’s Intrinsic Value Chart also contains a company’s Value Score (ranked valuation attractiveness), Economic Margin Change (expected improvement of economic profitability), and Accuracy (how well AFG’s default valuation has tracked the company) information. AFG’s valuation framework estimates a company’s equity value by subtracting debt and other liabilities from the total enterprise value. The total enterprise value is estimated by discounting projected future cash flows, utilizing analyst consensus, Economic Margin methodology, and the Decay concept which addresses the perpetuity bias in the traditional DCF model.

AFG’s Intrinsic Value Chart:

• Identifies entry/exit points

• Shows how well AFG has tracked the company (accuracy)

• Displays the trading range of the company each year through time (blue bars)

• Displays the end of year closing price (dash on blue bar)

• Displays AFG’s default intrinsic value (red dotted line)

How to Read this chart:

• The Blue Bars represent the high and low trading range for a stock for each calendar year.

• The red dotted line represents Applied Finance Group’s (AFG’s) historical Intrinsic Value through time.

• When the red line (Intrinsic Value) is above the blue bars (trading range) the company looks to be undervalued.

• When the red line (Intrinsic Value) is below the blue bars (trading range) the company looks to be overvalued.

Below is an example of AFG’s Intrinsic Value Chart and the important things to look for within the chart as well as two examples of undervalued companies according to AFG’s Intrinsic Value Chart as well as two overvalued and two fairly valued examples to provide a better understanding of what to look for when analyzing AFG’s Intrinsic Value Chart.

What to look for in AFG's Intrinsic Value Chart:

2 examples of undervalued companies (ABT,WAG) according to AFG's IV Chart:

2 examples of overvalued companies (BDK,MYL) according to AFG's IV Chart:

2 examples of fairly valued companies (CSCO,SNDK) according to AFG's IV Chart:

Click Here for an example of how we have used Intrinsic Value.

Every year Fortune releases a list of the 40 best companies to invest in now to retire on. This long-term portfolio is designed to protect your hard-earned nest-egg as you approach retirement.

Last year Fortune’s portfolio of 40 best stocks to retire on returned -23.07% from 6-20-08 to 6-16-09, relative to the -30.8% returned by the S&P500 during the same time period. This year they are replacing 23 stocks to form the new portfolio.

Provided below are the 40 stocks recommended by Fortune as the best stocks to retire on in 2009 and our outlook of these companies from a valuation perspective based on The Applied Finance Group’s valuation model.

 Fortune's 40 Best Stocks to Retire On - 2009

Related Stock Article:
Is Apple a Buy Hold or Sell?, Click Here to View

Fortune released a list of 40 companies in June 2008 that they labeled as the 40 best stocks to retire on. Although ValueExpectations.com’s research is focused on long-term investing, we believe reviewing companies on a ongoing basis helps to avoid potential pitfalls with bad investments and allows one to take advantage of companies that might be mispriced. For this reason we have ranked all companies in the Fortune 40 portfolio based on Valuation Attractiveness.

Good companies don’t always make good investments! If you believe this is a list of quality companies then that is a wonderful start. But understanding what you are paying for those companies is equally important. Few would argue that Mercedes Benz produces an excellent engineered vehicle and a quality product. However, if that Mercedes Benz cost $1,000,000, it may be a great vehicle, but not necessarily a good price.

As a review of the performance of this list since release, Fortune’s portfolio has returned an average of -28.64% since its release which is about 6.3% spread above what the S&P 500 delivered on average during the same time period. Although this portfolio did outperform the S&P 500, had you invested in these 40 companies in equal parts on the date of release, your $100,000 retirement nest egg would now be worth somewhere around $70,000.

Fortune 40 Companies To Retire On

 

AFG's Valuation Model – Using AFG’s modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers.

Below is a summary of 22 AFG Buy Recommendations from the S&P500 Index. The report highlights the 2 companies from each sector (ex. financials) that have the most attractive value score and are currently rated Buys by The Applied Finance Group, Ltd. (AFG). Factors used to derive a AFG’s recommendation include: Expected change in Economic Margins, Intrinsic Value, and Management Quality.

We also ran a VE analysis and provided the results. The VE analysis of each company is used to identify implied sales growth expectations versus what the company has delivered historically in sales growth over the past 5 years. Measuring the spread between a company’s VE sales growth expectations and what it has historically delivered should give you a good idea of which companies have the best chance of meeting or exceeding those expectations, and thus are more likely to outperform.

 

 Cheapest Companies In The S&P 500 By Sector (ex. Financials)

 

 Click Here, to see results of our portfolio performance using AFG's Buy/Sell criteria

A brief description of AFG's buy criteria variables is below:

• Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.

• Valuation Model – Using AFG’s modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers.

• Management Quality – Assess management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.

 Applied Finance Group’s (AFG’s) Value Score defined - A score which represents the ranked percent to target (deviation between stock’s current trading price and AFG’s current default target price) or attractiveness (upside) relative to the universe. A Value Score of 100 is the most undervalued and 0 is the most overvalued company in the universe.

VE Sales Growth - AFG’s Value Expectations allows us to understand the Sales Growth, EBITDA Margin, and Asset Turnover a company has to deliver in the future to justify its current trading price. In theory, if the imbedded future performance is very conservative relative to the company’s historical performance, the stock is regarded as undervalued. The VE Sales Growth displays the implied future Sales Growth of the company assuming their EBITDA Margins and Asset Turnovers stay at the 5 year historic median levels.

Fidelity’s Low Priced Stock Fund, which launched in 1989 (18 Billion AUM) and is managed by Joel Tillinghast, follows a simple strategy… Only invest in stocks with a share price under $35. This strategy first started with Tillinghast only investing in stocks below $10 a share, but later he moved the limit up to $35 a share. He argues that share price alone is not important but that the small-cap universe contains the most frequently mispriced stocks and the least amount of analyst coverage.

Although his fund at best has been a market performer as of late, Tillinghast had taken advantage of such mispricing’s during the last 15 years, averaging an 11% annual return compared to the 6% return earned by the S&P 500 over the same period. The fund had been closed to investors since 2003, but was recently reopened in December. Fidelity says they reopened the fund to get more cash inflow to be able to take advantage of all of the investment opportunities they see in the market.

Below is a list of the top holdings in Fidelity’s Low Priced Stock Fund as well as stocks that AFG believes are attractively priced in three price brackets: under $10, $10 to $20, and $20 to $35. Compare the implied sales growth priced-in to justify the current trading price (VE Sales Growth) vs. what the company has delivered in sales growth the past 5 years (5 Year Median Sales Growth) to see if the expectations are realistic for the company to achieve. The more realistic the expectations are, compared to what has been delivered, the more likely the firm will be to out-perform.

 

For the past 26 years Steven Halpern, editor of thestockadvisors.com has gone to well known and respected advisors once a year to find out which stocks they like for the coming year. Take a look at the list of stocks advisors liked in 2008 and their performance. Also listed are the picks of 75 prominent advisors for 2009 along with sales growth expectations for the companies to justify their current price (VE Sales Growth) which can be compared to what they have delivered in revenue growth over the past 5 years(5 Year Median Sales Growth). These companies are worth a look because they are in favor of well-respected advisors, but the companies that also have low expectations for sales growth priced-in to their stock are especially worthy of a close review.

 

2008 Blogger Picks Conservative and 2008 Performance

 

2008 Blogger Picks Speculative and 2008 Performance

 

Blogger Picks for 2009 and Sales Expectations

* denotes # of years historical sales numbers available

VE Sales Growth calculated for these firms on 1-6-09

According to Forbes.com, Cramer and a few other financial blog-sites the following qualities are usually found in stocks that do well in economic downturns of extended time periods.

• Consumer necessities
• Ability to pay a dividend
• Ability to add employees as other firms cut back
• Productivity increases as market goes down
• Healthcare stocks
• Legacy Companies – high quality company with long business history
• Involved in Military
• Oil industry
• Infrastructure
• Companies that sell used goods
• Generic products
• Overseas exposure

The following companies all have one or more of the above qualities to help them survive and perform well in an economic downturn. This table provides the implied 5 year sales growth priced-in to the stock to justify its current price along with the 5 year median achieved sales growth. Compare the revenue growth priced-in to what the company has been able to deliver in the past 5 years to see if the expectations are reasonable enough for the company to meet. Companies with reasonable expectations compared to what they have achieved are the most likely companies on the list to out-perform.

Stocks with Recession Resistant Qualities & Sales Growth Expectations

 

 

EQ is important in this current market environment because so many companies are feeling pressure to meet their sales expectations. Many companies are channel-stuffers, which is one form of accruals that often leads to negative earnings surprises. A recent poster-child for this example of sending excess inventory to stores that could not sell their products would be Crocs and the way they tried to pad their sales numbers.

Earnings Quality: Accrual

•An accrual is the difference between Cash Flow and Net Income.

•Net Income = Cash Flow + Accruals

•Low Accrual companies outperform high accrual

 Two ways to approach accruals:

1. Cash Flow Statement

•Difference between Net Income and Cash Flow

2. Balance Sheet

•Change in Net Operating Assets from Period t-1 to t

•Net Operating Asset equals Total Assets Less Cash, Less Non-Debt Liabilities (excl. Minority Interest)

-Our studies show that the Balance Sheet approach is superior to the Cash Flow Statement approach.

-We found the Balance Sheet approach is also easier to expand to international companies.

 We screened the  S&P500 to identify those firms with the worst EQ scores. The score is given from 1-100, 1 being the best EQ company, 100 being the company with the highest amount of accruals and the worst EQ. Because high EQ companies are more likely to have negative earnings surprises, this is a group of companies you may want to avoid. The EQ variable works well as an exclusionary variable coupled with AFG’s valuation model.

After running our screen we identified 14 firms as the worst Earnings Quality firms. You can set yourself up for success and save time by narrowing your list of constituents to only those that meet our standard valuation, Economic Margin and Management Quality checks and following that up by filtering out those companies most likely to have negative earnings surprises (high EQ). The Chart Below identifies the firms that met our screen criteria, along with the EQ score and our VE analysis.

 

Worst 10% Earnings Quality Companies In the S&P 500

 

 

Universe Size: 4,000 to 5,000 Firms

Source: Applied Finance Group Database from 9/1998-5/2008

 This variable does not add any value for companies within the financial sector and those companies are automatically screened out when using this variable.

Recently we also screened the S&P 500 to identify investment opportunities and identified over 150 companies (industrials) that have negative sales growth expectations embedded into their current market valuations. These companies include high quality companies such as: COH, DOW, CAH, TGT, JNJ, UTX, SBUX, and WAG, among others. If you would like to Read our study Click Here