HLTH

On January 13th, 2009, we posted a list of companies that were, “In Shape and Looking Good.” The screen looked at the Altman Z-Score (a bankruptcy forecast model) and valuation. On January 14th, Nortel Networks (NT), filed for bankruptcy protection. As of January 13, 2009, Nortel had a Z-Score of -3.5. As we posted earlier this week, Dr. Altman’s heuristic is broken down into 3 zones:

The Altman Z-Score breaks down firms into 3 zones:

• >2.99 – Not Likely to go Bankrupt
• 1.8 - 2.99 – Gray Area
• <1.8 – Likely to go Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years

As you can see from the chart below, Nortel Networks (NT) has a Z-score of -3.5 putting it in the “Likely to go Bankrupt in the Next 2 Year” category. Looking at its peers, ALU looks in jeopardy, where CSCO and JNPR are safe in the “Not Likely to go Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years” zone.

Below is a List of Firms in the R1000, that have negative Z-scores like Nortel Networks (NT) as of January 13th, 2009. Besides Z-Score this table also provides implied sales growth expectations priced-ion to justify their current price. Those with an N/A for VE Sales Growth need to fix their business model before we begin to evaluate the embedded expectations in their stock's price.

*VE Sales Growth calculated for these firms on 1-13-09