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Hot and Cold Stocks From Every Sector (ex. Financials) - Including Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ) and Conoco Phillips (NYSE:COP)
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The Most Unattractive S&P 500 Stocks: Avoid Companies Like… United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) and Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN)
The Applied Finance Group (AFG) works with some of the most well respected investment firms in the U.S. to help them develop quantitative screening processes to identify a better pool of companies to choose from for their portfolio holdings. However, picking winning investment opportunities isn’t the only value AFG provides clients. AFG also develops quantitative strategies to quickly identify possible torpedoes lurking in your client or prospective client’s portfolio.
AFG’s quantitative process is centered on the proprietary Economic Margin (EM) Framework (what a company earns above its true cost of capital). The core of AFG’s quantitative process starts with evaluating corporate performance and the expected improvement relative to their peers, evaluating the valuation attractiveness of the company, and determining if a firm is following a wealth creating or wealth destroying strategy.
A brief description of those variables is available below the list of companies.
When identifying potential torpedoes AFG looks for companies with the least valuation upside compared to their sector peers, below sector median expected Economic Margin change, and a management quality score that reflects a management team following a wealth destroying strategy.
These 20 S&P 500 companies from every major AFG defined sector (ex. Financials) are potential torpedoes that could be lurking in your portfolio. These companies all possess characteristics that make for a bad investment opportunity. If you own one of these companies or consider adding one to your portfolio, we suggest taking a closer look as they look the most likely to underperform their sector peers according to criteria that has proven successful at identifying winners and losers in the market.
If you are a professional investor and would like to learn more about AFG’s EM methodology, investment criteria or stock selection process click here to register to trial the product.
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AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).
Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.
Management Quality – Assesses management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.
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AFG Recommendation Performance
9/1998 – 5/2009
Annualized Returns
Other Market Related Articles of Interest
Source: AFGView client databases from 9/1998 – 5/2009
Universe size: 4,000 to 5,500 firms
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Identifying Large Cap Investment Opportunities - Including McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) Sprint (NYSE:S) and Hasbro (NYSE:HAS)
The Applied Finance Group (AFG) has a disciplined approach for identifying companies that are expected to outperform and underperform the market by using proprietary metrics and measurements that have been tested and proven through time. Because AFG’s research is fundamentally derived, AFG’s quantitative analysis spans across growth and value stocks, all sectors, industries, and market caps with over 20,000 covered securities globally. Using AFG’s proprietary criteria, AFG publishes a monthly buy/sell list to provide clients with a refined focused list as a starting point for potential investments. AFG clients can then use Value Expectations to further analyze the expectations embedded in a security’s price and to build out their own model to refine an intrinsic value of a company based on their own expectations.
When searching for Large-Cap ideas, AFG’s Buy/Sell list is a good starting place as it has proven to create a significant spread in performance between companies that come up on AFG’s buy list and those on the sell list. Further focusing on companies based on AFG’s proprietary screening criteria (Economic Margin, valuation, quality of earnings, and management’s ability to create shareholder wealth) will save investors time in their research process. The result is a target group of stocks that can help you outperform as well as identify potential torpedoes to avoid in your portfolios.
Below is a list of attractive and unattractive companies in the S&P 500 from each major sector (as defined by AFG). It serves as a focus list of companies for investors to begin with as they meet AFG’s criteria. They are more likely to outperform their sector peers and the S&P 500, the benchmark that AFG’s clients most often compare themselves with.
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Source: EconomicMargin.com
AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).
Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.
Management Quality – Assesses management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.
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