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ValueExpectations.com has continued to provide investment ideas to help our readers make better informed investment decisions. In addition to finding Buy opportunities, VE.com also understands the importance of avoiding potential torpedoes given the current market volatility, so we have decided to provide a list of potential sell/short ideas from the S&P500 index (excluding Financials). These companies on our list look “At-Risk” of going bankrupt in the next 2 years according to the Altman Z-score (Z-Score), and look overvalued according to the AFG’s valuation framework.

Here is the list of 15 firms that you may want to avoid for your portfolio.

Overvalued S&P 500 Companies (Ex. Financials) with Poor Z-Scores (Altman Z-Score)

AFG Sell Criteria: When identifying possible sell/short opportunities (torpedoes) The Applied Finance Group (AFG) starts by running a screen using its proprietary Sell Criteria variables starting with Economic Margin. Economic Margin is a measure of corporate performance that identifies how profitable a company is by measuring how much the company earns above or below its cost of capital. In addition to corporate performance, AFG looks to identify those companies that are unattractively priced using our valuation model. Lastly AFG evaluates how well companies run their business using its Management Quality score, identifying companies that have management teams that destroy wealth.

The Altman Z-score - Z-score is a metric that gives insights into the likelihood of a firm going bankrupt in the next 2 years. The model was developed by Professor Edward I. Altman of the NYU’s Stern School of Business and first published in The Journal of FINANCE in September 1968. A common critique to this metric is that it was developed over 40 years ago and is no longer relevant.

In 2001, Professor Joseph D. Piotroski of The University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, published a paper called, Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers. Piotroski showed that value investors were rewarded by looking at a firm’s financial health and he showed that Z-score was a meaningful statistic.

More recently, on December 5, 2008, Dr. Altman was called to testify before a House of Representatives Committee on the condition of U.S. Automakers. In his testimony, he noted that Bloomberg, Inc. reported, “that approximately 1,000 users of their system per day access the Altman Z-Score model.”

The Altman Z-Score breaks down firms into 3 zones:
• >2.99 – Not Likely to Go Bankrupt
• 1.8 - 2.99 – Gray Area
• <1.8 – Likely to Go Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years

Bloomberg provides a score for companies within the S&P 500 based on an average of all analyst ratings from the street. Below is a table highlighting companies with the best analyst ratings, largest increase in rating, highest price targets, and worst analyst ratings and the valuation attractiveness of each of these companies based on The Applied Finance Group’s (AFG) valuation model.

Companies within each of these groups are ranked from most attractive from a valuation perspective to the least attractive. VE.com will actively track the performance of these recommendations and see how they stack up to the analyst recommendations in each group. AFGview.com, AFG’s professional investor website allows you to compare any company using their rating versus the consensus ratings of the sell side. If you are interested in an analysis on a specific company, contact afgsales@afgltd.com.

Best/Worst Analyst Rated Companies (Bloomberg)

AFG's Valuation Model – Using AFG’s modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers. AFG's Value Score - A score which represents the ranked percent to target (deviation between stock’s current trading price and AFG’s current default target price) or attractiveness (upside) relative to the universe. A Value Score of 100 is the most undervalued and 0 is the most overvalued company in the universe.

According to Bespoke Investment Group, these ten companies have the highest percentage of Buy ratings from the analysts that follow them. This table shows the number of analysts covering each stock and the number of buy and sell ratings as well as the percentage of buy ratings on the top 10 companies from Bespoke. Also in the table is the achieved 5 year median sales growth and the VE Sales growth (Sales Growth expectations priced in to the stock at today’s price). Only the top 4 companies on the list LO, PM, TMO, and AYE have 100% buy ratings from all analysts. Of those four, only AYE has high expectations relative to what they have delivered in sales growth in the past. Six out of the twelve companies on the list LO, PM, TMO, GOOG, COV, and BLL have very realistic expectations for sales growth priced-in compared to what they have been able to achieve. With the high percentage of buy ratings on these stocks they all deserve a more in-depth look, but the six with low expectations look especially worthy of consideration as potential investments.

S&P 500 Stocks with the Highest Percentage of Analyst Buy Ratings.

*denotes company only has 2 years of historical sales growth
**denotes company only has 3 years of historical sales growth
VE Sales Growth was calculated for these companies on 12/12/08.

The timing and performance of the stock market had an important impact on the outcome of the election just as the outcome of the election has had an impact on these 20 stocks since the election-day.
Listed are 10 of the best and worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 (excluding financials) since the November 4th election and their 5 year implied sales growth that the company needs to earn to be fairly valued at the closing price on 12/1/08.

*LIZ has since been removed from the S&P 500

                                           Biggest Winners Since The Election

                                       Biggest Losers Since The Election 

 Recently we also screened the S&P 500 to identify investment opportunities and identified over 150 companies (industrials) that have negative sales growth expectations embedded into their current market valuations. These companies include high quality companies such as: COH, DOW, CAH, TGT, JNJ, UTX, SBUX, and WAG, among others. If you would like to Read our study Click Here