AFG's Market Forecast Project - Investor Predictions on Oil Price Movements

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In The Applied Finance Group’s Market Forecast Project (MFP) monthly survey of professional investors , participants are asked to predict the movements in commodity prices over the next 12 months. Over the last 10 surveys a majority of our survey participants predicted a rise in oil prices and those predictions looked extremely accurate up until oil prices experienced a 20% drop in the last week to near $68 a barrel. We will continue to monitor investor sentiment on the price of oil and track the actual price to see if investors see the 20% drop as a temporary one or a trend that may continue due to concern that the debt crisis in Europe and a lack of economic growth could have a very negative effect on demand for oil.

If you are an investment professional or an individual investor who actively follows the market, please join us for next month’s MFP! It’s fast and free to join and you will be the first to receive the results every month.

In every survey conducted, a majority of participants have a positive outlook on price of oil, with our latest survey (conducted earlier this month) showing that 75% of MFP survey takers predict the price of oil to continue to rise over the next 12 months.

The chart below outlines the percentage of investors who believe the price of oil will continue to rise (green trend line), percentage of investors who think oil prices will fall (red trend line) both plotted on the left axis, and the actual movement of the price of oil (black trend line) plotted on the right axis.

The Market Forecast Project

The Applied Finance Group (AFG) conducts a monthly survey of investment professionals designed to keep participants updated on the thoughts/views of a large group of their peers on topics that affect the market and economy such as political issues, movements in commodity prices, market predictions as well as their favorite long and short equity ideas among other topics.

The Market Forecast Project is a good way for investors to…

• Understand Trends of Investor Sentiment and Incorporate MFP Forecasts to Better Position your Portfolio

• Enhance Client Communication

• Find Actionable Long/Short Investment Ideas to help you Outperform!!!

• Use the "Wisdom of crowds" to Gain Insight into Popular Themes and Events in the Market

If you are an investment professional or an individual investor who actively follows the market, please join us for next month’s MFP! It’s fast and free to join and you will be the first to receive the results every month.